Israeli Gaza Tensions Explosive

Update 12 Nov:  Bibi has apparently launched his Gaza war by assassinating the defacto commander of the Islamic Jihad early this morning.  This post is now closed; see the November News and Prophecy Blog for regular updates beginning 12 Nov and subsequent monthly follow up Blogs.

The Syrian army and Hezbollah have not yet invaded Idlib but they are massed around Idlib province in the north and stretched thin in supporting the Kurdish areas according to the new agreement with the Kurds.  The Syrian army has been engaged in nearly constant fights with Turkish backed militias along the Syrian Kurdish border with Turkey especially around Hasakah.  These difficulties make any intervention in support of Gaza almost impossible at this time. 

The Israel attack on Gaza could best be named Operation Unity Government since it forces the other political parties to back and cooperate with Netanyahu’s Likud until the end of hostilities. Scroll down to find this option as first posted in the September 13 update.

Politically after the failure of Netanyahu to form a government Gantz’s Blue and White now has seven more days left in its mandate to form a governing coalition with success unlikely.  After that the Knesset will have 21 days to find its own solution before an election must be called within three months. 

If quiet is not restored the Knesset will probably permit the Likud to continue governing with a minority backed by the other parties until the situation calms. After which the political crisis would need to be resolved.  Netanyahu is obviously intent on prolonging and expanding the conflict.  If he carries through with plans to destroy the militias and the Hamas military wing, the project could take several months.

Update 7 Oct: After supervising the evacuation of Kurdish militias from a zone on the Turkish border US troops left two observation posts in NE Syria after a phone call Sunday night between President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Erdogan. 

Turkish forces and militias will occupy the buffer zone and secure Turkey’s border with Syria east of the Euphrates as all sides prepare for a Syrian Russian operation west of the Euphrates to demolish the Idlib based terrorists from central Asia.  The US move out of the new border buffer zone east of the Euphrates seems to be part of a larger deal with Turkey against Syria once the Idlib terrorists are demolished.

TheShiningLight has been warning for over a year that once the Russia and Syria Idlib operation is in full gear [as soon as in November] Israel is expected to launch its own Gaza operation, then as both of these operations wind down hostilities are expected between Israel and Syria – Hezbollah, with Turkey standing by to assist in the overthrow of Assad ahead of a genuine dialogue for peace. This move will catapult Turkey to dominance of the Middle East outside of Egypt as per Psalm 83.

Update 6 Oct: Netanyahu convenes the security cabinet in an attempt to forge a national unity government by emphasizing security issues. He is likely to fail to leverage this into a national unity government, however the Blue and White will probably rally round the flag and support the government from the opposition during the course of hostilities.   In truth Israel is indeed very close to an invasion of Gaza and conflict in the north as well.

Israel and the Arab Gulf States preparing to end their state of war and work together against Iran.

Syria- The two main Turkish-backed militias in Syria, the National Liberation Front and National Army have merged together.  The overall commander will be the rebel Interim Government’s Defense Minister Salim Idris and they will take their orders directly from Turkey. They are making ready to block the escape of the terrorists once the Syrian Russian Idlib operation begins. Once Israel demolishes Hezbollah and the Syrian army the Turkish backed militias will be in a position to help overthrow the Assad government.

Update 2 Oct: Russia has warned Turkey that if the Idlib terrorists are not disarmed by the end of October, a major Syrian Russian operation to destroy the Idlib terrorists will begin in November.  Even though Syria and Russia have been preparing and building up for this operation for several months already, the actual battle will be very intense and could last for some time. 

Meanwhile Israel is at the ready to invade Gaza and destroy the military arm of Hamas and other militias but has been holding back and waiting for the Syrian Idlib operation to begin. This strategic patience is advisable so that Israel can concentrate on Gaza while Hezbollah and Syria are fully occupied with the Idlib fighting and cannot intervene to help Gaza.  Nevertheless the Israeli fighting will eventually spread to include Hezbollah, Syria and likely Iran. 

Israeli Election- According to Israeli law, if the first candidate tasked by the president with forming a government fails to do so within the maximum allotted six-week time frame, the president can task a second candidate with forming a coalition within a four-week time frame.

Should this candidate also fail in forming a coalition, there is a 21-day period in which 61 MKs can back a candidate before the Knesset must be dissolved and a new election called.  The new election must then be held within four months.  It is possible that something could break the coalition deadlock or bring elections quickly, it is also possible that it could take as long as next spring for another election. 

On Sep 25 President Reuven Rivlin asked Netanyahu to try and form a new Israeli government.  Bibi will now have 28 days with a possible 14 day extension to form a governing coalition of at least 61 seats.

It is now highly likely that Israel will have to fight against Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran in the near future, it is even possible that a security crisis with Gaza or in the region could unite the Israeli political factions until hostilities end. 

 

Update 24 Sep: It looks like Netanyahu will soon be given the first try at forming a government and Likud officials have begun preliminary contacts with officials from Kahol Lavan [Blue and White] to begin talks on a national unity government.

Regardless of who gets the first try, if the corruption charges against Netanyahu are confirmed on Oct 2 it is highly unlikely that Bibi will be able to form a government and the Blue and White also has little chance.  Barring a political miracle Israel is headed to a third election next year.  It is also fairly certain that a multi front regional war will break out in the coming months which will have a profound effect on the Israeli electorate, breaking the deadlock in favor of a government which will conduct a genuine dialogue for peace.

Update 19 September: With almost all votes counted, the Orthodox/right-wing bloc has 55 seats, the centrist/left/Arab bloc has 57, and Yisrael Beytenu’s Avigdor Liberman holds the balance of power with eight. If these figures hold it is possible that the president would give Blue and White the first opportunity to try and form a government. 

Blue and White has 33 seats to Likud’s 31. Third was the Joint List alliance of Palestinian-majority parties at 13, followed by the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas with nine and United Torah Judaism with eight. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu also has eight, Yamina has seven, Labor-Gesher has six and the Democratic Camp has five.

A desperate Netanyahu invites Gantz’s Blue and White to join a Likud government.  Gantz knowing that the Blue and White has won the election rejects the offer, calling on Likud to dump Bibi and join with him. This could result in a split of the Likud moderates to join a Blue and White peace making government leaving the more extremist elements in a rump Likud.

The president will decide around the end of September who he will mandate to try and form a governing coalition.  Meanwhile the security situation is at the boiling point with Israel attacking Iranian assets in Syria and Iran at the ready to respond, possibly from Gaza. Netanyahu may drag Israel into a war, hoping to force a third election in which he can run as a victorious hero. 

 

Update 16 September:  Last weekend’s pre-election Gaza war was postponed after the Attorney General told Netanyahu he needed cabinet approval.  The Israeli cabinet and the IDF forced a postponement of Netanyahu’s plans for a pre-election war on Gaza. The cabinet, because they did not want a conflict that would delay the elections and the IDF wanted more time for the Syrian Idlib operation to mature. For more see the September 2019 News Blog.

 

Update 13 September: The latest polls show the Blue and White and the Likud parties tied in the number of Knesset seats with neither side being able to form a governing coalition of at least 61 seats.  The polls suggest that Likud will have the best chance of forming a government in terms of coalition building, indicating that Netanyahu may again be asked by the president to try forming a governing coalition within 30 days. 

If Netanyahu cannot form a governing coalition he can return the mandate and the president will then give it to the Blue and White for a try, even though they have little chance unless the Likud splits between moderates and hard liners: or Bibi could again legislate new elections like he did last time.

A third option is to force a coalition by launching a war with Gaza which would escalate to include Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria and possibly Iran. All the parties would rally around the flag and Bibi would have a governing national unity coalition at least until the hostilities end.

Any war could take months and establishing some political stability in the region would take even longer.  From there it remains to be seen how long it will take to arrange a peace deal. The tribulation could begin in late 2020 or take even longer. 

 

Israeli Gaza Tensions Explosive

The orders have been given, the ultimatum sent and the IDF is on standby to launch a major Gaza Operation which in all probability will spread to include Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria and possibly Iran.

Just 11 days before the Sep 17 Israeli election, polls have Kahol Lavan [Blue and White] and Likud tied, with neither side being able to form a governing coalition. If the elections go ahead as scheduled it is highly likely to be a rerun of the spring election which failed to establish a governing coalition and could easily result in a third election.

Note:  If an election takes place and war breaks out before a new government can be established, the other parties would back the government until the conclusion of any conflict: After that normal political events would resume.

There is one big difference, the Oct 2 court hearing to determine if the courts will hear the three corruption indictments against Netanyahu.  Whoever is tasked with forming a government will make no progress until the results of that hearing are known.  If the court rules against hearing the indictments Bibi has a chance, but if the courts decide to hear the case his chances of forming a government are virtually impossible.

If Netanyahu fails to form a government he could call a third election or the president could ask the Blue and White to try forming a government and they could offer a coalition with Likud if they get rid of Netanyahu; which offer would likely split off the Likud moderates from the die hard extremists, enabling a Blue and White coalition government and leaving a rump extremist Likud.

Although the initial court hearing is scheduled for 2 Oct reports suggest that there is more than enough evidence to proceed. This means that the Netanyahu era is ending and could result in imprisonment for Bibi.

In this situation, if possible Bibi needs some way to postpone the election and the court case and present himself as Mr Security to garner as many votes as possible when the election does take place; he cannot afford to appear weak on security issues.

Today Netanyahu gave Hamas and the Gaza militias an ultimatum through Egypt.

This is Israel’s last warning and final notice to Hamas. More attacks and failure to uphold its commitments for reining in its people and those of its allies, in keeping with standing undertakings, would have one consequence, the prime minister warned. The IDF already has its orders and is standing ready to launch a comprehensive military campaign against Hamas and the other organizations operating in the Gaza Strip.

At the end of the message, Netanyahu emphasized that Hamas and its leaders would be seriously mistaken if they expected Israel’s Sept.17 election to delay its Gaza operation. Quite the opposite. The election will be delayed. Israel’s political parties will join forces to postpone the election until after it is over.

Israel called up reservists last week and on Sunday the IDF from the General Staff on down began exercise “Headstone.”  The exercise will practice a full scale multi front war through Wednesday after which a Readiness Report will be presented to the political leadership.

Short of a miracle a major Israeli Gaza operation seems hard to avoid in the coming days. Converging with that Syria is expected to launch an operation to liberate the Idlib province and eradicate the central Asian terrorists concentrated there. 

With much of the Syrian army already concentrated near the Turkish border the time is ideal for an Israeli Gaza Operation which is highly likely to spread to include Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria and potentially Iran.

Doubtless Bibi would be hoping that a major victory would translate into votes when the election does take place, but that might not happen if the victory is very destructive and bloody.

When the conflict is over the political realities across the Middle East will have been reset making a genuine dialogue for peace possible.

For more see the September 2019 News Blog.

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