6 May Netanyahu held a security assessment of the Southern Command today and declared:
“In the past two days we have renewed the policy of eliminating [assassinating] senior terrorists, killing dozens of terrorists from Hamas and Islamic Jihad and destroying terror towers.” “We have changed the rules of the game, and Hamas understands this very well. However, it is clear that this is not the end of the campaign, and I therefore instructed [the IDF] to prepare for a continuation and I also intend to leave the armored and artillery forces around the Gaza Strip.
Today’s temporary cease fire will give the IDF time to build up and Bibi time to try and form a government; it may also lull the Gaza militias, making them ripe for a surprise leadership decapitation campaign by Israel in the near future.
Syria- The Syrian Arab Army’s long-awaited anti terrorist offensive backed by intense Russian air strikes in northwestern Syria is underway, with several units storming the militant defenses around the Hama-Idlib axis.
The Tiger Forces have captured the towns of Al-Bana and Al-Janabra, which are near the Kafr Naboudeh axis in northern Hama. The Syrian Arab Army is also working to secure the key hilltop of Tal Uthman. Heavy fighting is underway near the Kafr Naboudeh front; and along the Qal’at Al-Madiq axis.
5 May 05:15 PDT: Gaza- As massive Israeli troop deployments head for Gaza Route 34 is closed to civilian traffic from the Yad Mordechai Junction to the Shaar Hanegev Junction in both directions and Route 232 is closed from Shaar Hanegev Junction to Saad Junction in both directions.
Israel will be working to take out the Gaza militias as quickly as possible in order to try and complete the job before turning north to engage Hezbollah, but Hezbollah, now occupied with the imminent Idlib offensive may be more ready to engage Israel than is thought. The war will ultimately spread to include a regime change in Iran.
Is it possible that the war which TheShiningLight has been warning was coming for the past 12 years, has now begun? This war is imperative to reset regional realities before the Western Establishment’s peace plan can be implemented.
5 May 03:15 PDT: Gaza- PM Netanyahu declares Special Status within 25 miles of the Gaza border. Special Status essentially places the area under martial law. The declaration will expire in 48 hours unless renewed. This step could presage an invasion of the strip.
0:33 PDT: Gaza- Yesterday’s fighting was triggered by the Israeli breaking of the ceasefire agreement by blocking a $30 million tranche of emergency Qatari aid on Thursday. This resulted in Islamic Jihad launching a warning shot out to sea and Israel responding with an air strike followed up by live fire on Friday border demonstrators, killing four and wounding 82, including 34 children, two journalists and three paramedics.
Rocket fire from Gaza began Saturday morning after the militia leaderships had left for Egypt with the cover story of holding negotiations, prudently protecting themselves from Israel assassination during the battle.
By Sunday morning Iron Dome had intercepted more than 100 of the 430 rockets fired in the previous 24 hours. One Israeli man was killed overnight in Ashkelon and several people were injured – in considering Israeli figures remember that Israel inflates the wounded numbers by including those who are only distraught as well as the actual wounded. The IDF has bombed some 200 Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets so far.
Israel is rushing the 7th Armored Brigade to the Gaza sector and insists that there will be no ceasefire this time as the Security Cabinet meets at noon [local time] in Tel Aviv to discuss invasion plans.
Syria- A Syrian operation to extirpate jihadist control in the Hama part of the Al-Ghaab Plain, the militant-held points near the government strongholds of Mhardeh and Al-Sqaylabiyeh, and the southern Idlib towns currently trapped between Syria on one side and Turkish controlled forces on the other is about to begin.
Leading the Syrian Arab Army’s offensive will be the elite Tiger Forces, Republican Guard, and 4th Armored Division which will attack separate points on the front. The Tiger Forces will be led by their Taha and Tarmeeh groups, while the Republican Guard forces will be from the 104th, 105th, and 106th brigades. The 5th Corps, 11th Tank Division, National Defense Forces (NDF), and Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) will also participate.
Update 1 May: The Syrian army has been given a go ahead to launch an operation to eradicate the Islamic Extremists from the Idlib region. The Syrian Arab Army’s elite Republican Guard, 4th Armored Division, and Tiger Forces supported by the Palestinian-led Al-Quds Brigade [an Iranian asset] and Hezbollah (Syrian and Lebanese groups) are standing by to launch their assault. Close air support will be provided by the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) and the Russian Air Force.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) super Carrier Strike Group has joined the USS Abraham Lincoln off Syria and the USS Stennis is visiting Marseilles France, also in the Mediterranean Sea.
The US is coming down hard against Hamas and Islamic Jihad ahead of an Israeli invasion of Gaza, which is expected to commence after Syria Hezbollah is committed against the Idlib terrorists near the Turkish border.
The Turkish-backed National Liberation Front (NLF) has been sending large convoys of reinforcements to the areas in Syria it controls near Idlib. They will protect the Turkish border and block any escape of the terrorists.
Once the Syrian operation gets underway, Israel is expected to invade Gaza and when the Idlib terrorists are nearing their end an American strike could wipe out Syrian air defenses and allow Israel to attack Syria Hezbollah. The Turkish backed militias along with other foreign backed militias could then overthrow the Syrian regime while the US takes out the Revolutionary Guards and foments a revolution in Iran.
Update 29 Apr: For the past week Russia has been pounding the terrorists in the Idlib region in a heavy sustained aerial bombardment. This seems to be the expected pre-invasion softening up. Once Syria and Hezbollah are entangled in Idlib a short window will open for an Israeli operation to take down the Gaza militias without fear of an attack in their north. This opening will quickly pass and the war on Gaza will spread to include Hezbollah, Syria and Iran.
The US has prepared a made in America “grass roots” revolution and regime change for Iran, which will come once the Revolutionary Guards are devastated by bombing.
On May 2 an American oil embargo on Iran will go into effect. US, French, British and other allied forces are massing in the Middle East.
Iran could well take their time and use proxies like Hamas or Hezbollah to respond, and any action might not come for some time yet.
It would be a mistake to think that the coming wars will be a reprise of the Six Day War, it will take weeks probably months before they conclude; and still longer before governments are put in place which are stable enough to make peace. Trump’s plan appears to be war this year followed by prosperity and a peace deal just ahead of the 2020 elections.
PM Netanyahu’s coalition talks have until 29 May including a possible 14 day extension, to form a coalition government. The Orthodox parties are proposing a solution to the Haredi Draft Law deadlock which would allow the law to be passed as is, a key demand of Lieberman’s party, in exchange for a law enshrining Talmudic study as a vital national interest. If this is agreed it would make scenario 2 below a viable possibility.
There are many possible scenarios but the two main probabilities are:
- Bibi fails to build a governing coalition and new elections are held within three months, with regional war before polling day. This would put the new Israeli government formation in the 2019 autumn time frame at the earliest, while new governments would still have to be formed in Iran, Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority;
- Bibi does form a coalition and fights his war, after which the coalition collapses over the peace plan or some other issue, and a coalition reshuffle or an election is called at that time. This process could easily take another year or more.
Remember that regardless of wars and rumors of wars, political events and peace plans; the final and definitive sign that the onset of the tribulation is imminent is the setting up of a miracle working man (2 Thess) as Roman Pontiff in the Vatican.
When he is set up there will be a maximum of 1,335 days until Christ comes (Dan 12). Within about 75 days [1335 days minus 1260 days for the tribulation] after being set up he will go to the Temple Mount, which visit will trigger the tribulation beginning with the occupation of Jerusalem and war on Judea (Matthew 24: 15).
We will only know for certain that the tribulation is about to begin when this man is set up doing miracles and announces his plans for a visit to Jerusalem. It could be late this year, or late next year or even longer, and a Middle East peace must also be reached (1 Thess 5:3).
Personal Speculation: The tribulation will begin at God’s appointed time, yet I would not be at all surprised if it takes until late 2020 for events in the world and in the Assemblies to unfold, for a Middle East peace deal to be achieved and for the miracle worker to be set up bringing the great tribulation.
Update 5 Apr 15:30 PDT: Breaking Syria- In the first step of an operation to demolish the remaining terrorists in north Syria, the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th Division and Republican Guard has begun storming Al Qaeda jihadist positions at the eastern axis of the Aleppo Research Center.
At the same time Russian pre attack reconnaissance flights are now swarming over northern Syria, and the Syrian Army unit has unleashed a heavy attack on the western outskirts of Aleppo, hitting the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sha[Al Qaeda] controlled towns of Khan Al-Assal, Kafr Hamra, and Ma’arat Aghrek.
US/Iran- The Trump administration is preparing to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a foreign terrorist organization as soon as Monday, US officials said Friday, according to The Wall Street Journal. The move would allow Trump to attack Iran based on existing anti terror legislation.
Update 5 April: The last polls before Israel’s April 9 election show the Blue and White Joint List and Likud in a virtual tie with neither side being able to form a coalition with enough Knesset seats to establish a government.
“Past polls have shown that nearly one out of every six or seven voters makes a decision only in the last two days before the elections, and it isn’t clear what will be the dynamic of the coming few days,” the Maariv daily wrote Friday.
If this present situation holds on election day, and then after a 30 day effort a governing coalition cannot be formed a second round of voting will be held within 90 days.
At present a calm has been established with Gaza. The situation is likely to unravel before long with Syria almost ready to launch her Russian backed offensive in Idlib and Israel remains at the ready to invade Gaza.
A spring summer Middle East war would influence a possible Israeli second round election and reset regional realities for the unveiling of the US Peace Initiative co-sponsored by Jordan, Egypt and the Arab states later this year.
Update 30 March: Israel has been forced to accept an Egyptian brokered ceasefire because Hezbollah has promised to enter any Israeli war with Gaza on behalf of Hamas. Israel is still waiting for the Syria Russian anti terror operation in Idlib to begin in earnest, so that Hezbollah and Syria will be occupied with Idlib when Israel enters Gaza.
Syria and Russia are presently engaged in pre invasion bombing in Idlib but that could last for weeks before any heavy ground invasion. With the restraint shown by both sides a temporary truce is now obtainable, which could allow the 9 April Israeli elections to go forward.
Netanyahu’s popularity as “Mr. Security” will suffer among his far right extremist supporters who wanted to wipe out the Gaza militias. As things stand today neither the Netanyahu Likud nor the Gantz Blue and White will be able to form a governing coalition after the 9 April election, without joining together in a national unity government or calling a second round of balloting. The Gaza invasion will come when the time is opportune for Israel, quite probably before any possible second round of voting.
Update 28 March 2019: Over the past two weeks Israel and the Gaza militias have engaged in two separate rounds of intense rocket and bombing exchanges, both lasting a sort time and then pausing. These events are leading up to planned massive demonstrations in Gaza this coming weekend which are expected to turn violent and Israel has been mobilizing reserves and preparing to invade the strip,
From the Hamas point of view they have been unable to negotiate a long term armistice with the present hard right Netanyahu government and are trying to embarrass the Netanyahu government in the hope that Likud will lose the April 9 election, and the formation of a new Israeli government which might be more amenable to an armistice and the lifting of the Israeli blockade on Gaza.
Hamas does not believe that Israel will invade just before elections and the major demonstrations planned for this coming Friday, Saturday and Sunday are meant to generate yet one more round of violent exchanges to demonstrate that there is strong support for Hamas in Gaza and to embarrass Netanyahu just ahead of elections.
Netanyahu has his own plan which involves allowing Hamas to repeatedly provoke Israel while showing great patience, in order to put all responsibility for the coming operation squarely on Hamas and gain as much support as possible for a major operation to take down the Gaza militias.
Whether full scale conflict breaks out in the coming days or after the elections is irrelevant since neither Likud nor the Blue White joint list are likely to be able to form a government without excluding the extremist parties and coming together in a national unity government to make the peace, or forcing a second round of voting.
In any case a take down of the Gaza militias followed by a defeat of Hezbollah and its allies, is essential to reset the Middle East reality to put forward the Trump Peace Initiative with any chance of success.
2019 Middle East War Alert
Israel and Gaza are rushing towards open warfare as Hamas seeks to generate the largest possible turnout for the planned March 29-30 Land Day demonstrations. The two rockets fired at Tel Aviv last week are now acknowledged by Israel to have been an accidental misfiring. Nevertheless Israel used the event to stage a practice run for the now imminent war.
It is very important for Hamas to establish in peoples minds an Israeli responsibility for their predicament since certain NGOs backed by the Palestinian Authority are using the situation to stir up anti Hamas feelings in the strip.
In the face of an organized uprising Hamas is discarding all restraint and calling for a “Million Man March,” and many thousands are likely to demonstrate against the 50% unemployment and extreme poverty caused by the Israeli blockade and express their desire to return to their lands abandoned inside Israel.
Israel has been preparing for this war for a very long time and for the past month Israel has been arresting every suspected Hamas linked person they can find on the West Bank. On Friday Israel deployed all of its Iron Dome air defense systems and Israel is spending the next two weeks calling up reserves and redeploying military units from around the country to the Gaza border.
Likud MK Yoav Kisch said at a cultural event in Petah Tikva on 16 March “The prime minister is dealing with the security issue as if there are no elections, and if need be we’ll conquer Gaza before the elections” on April 9, Kisch added.
Now that a significant number of people in Gaza are seeking to overthrow Hamas and reestablish a relationship with the Palestinian Authority, the time has arrived for an Israeli intervention to remove Hamas so that a peace deal can be made with the Palestinian Authority. Although for political reasons it cannot be openly stated, this conflict is an essential prerequisite for the success of the Trump Peace Initiative plan.
According to European media, Israel’s military echelon has now approved a plan to reconquer the Strip, at least temporarily, and destroy Hamas militarily. The army believes that the need for such an operation may be imminent, as the situation in Gaza is extremely volatile.
As this blog has been warning for the past twelve years, the takeout of the Hamas Military Wing is essential to achieve a Middle East Peace Agreement. The status of Gaza will be decided at the coming peace talks, but the most likely end game is a return of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority and an International Stabilization Force for the strip.
The present deployment of Syrian forces in the north of Syria for an operation against the terrorists in the Idlib region opens up a short window of opportunity for Israel to launch a massive Blitzkrieg to take out the Hamas Military Wing as quickly as possible and then rush north to fight Syria, Hezbollah and Iran.
In two weeks the American air defense systems deployed from Europe to protect Israel from Syria, Hezbollah and Iran will complete their computer simulations and become fully operational.